On Tuesday, at a meeting with the Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev, President Vladimir Putin said that you should not dispose of additional quantities of grain on the market, as the world prices for grain fell slightly. The main thing - to provide domestic grain market for the production of fodder and to provide the population with bread, Putin explained.
This year's expected record grain crop in Russia - 113-116 million tons, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. It is also expected to export a record in the 2016/17 agricultural season was -. 40 million tons of Russia may become the largest exporter of wheat in the world market, even surpassing the total exports of the European Union, reported in the August review of the US Department of Agriculture. According to him, Russia is able to export a record 30 million tonnes of wheat.
But so far there is no export records, according to analysts, and the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. According to the Ministry of Agriculture in July and August exports of 5.4 million tons of grain, which is 7% lower than a year earlier for the same period.
According to the forecast of the analytical center "Sovecon" for July - September will be exported 9 million tons of wheat, 10% less than the previous year, when the harvest was 10 million tons less. This is due to the fact that world prices were at a low level, and internal Russian - grew.
Also in September, Russia exported less wheat because of the limitations of Egypt content of ergot in wheat - to zero. But in Egypt last week waived the requirements that will increase exports in October, the director of "SovEkon" Andrey Sizov. In addition, producers from the beginning of the season held back grain in anticipation of higher purchase prices on the market and the weakening of the ruble, leading Sizov another reason for decline in exports.
Domestic supply for export is still low - manufacturers holding back grain, said Deputy Director of Strategic Marketing "Rusagrotrans" Igor Pavensky. Demand from exporters fall, as they, in turn, is interested to work with such a margin - a maximum of $ 1-3 of 1 ton, he explains (see also the graph.). Traders earn a few dollars per 1 ton confirms Sizov.
In addition, the state purchasing interventions are very active in Central Russia and the impact on the market: manufacturers do not want to cut prices, as guided by the prices offered by the state, and they are higher. The average price of wheat of 3rd class at the time of purchase interventions from 19 to 27 September was 10 525 rubles. for 1 ton, wheat Class 4 - 9973.5 rubles. for 1 ton, according to the site of the National Mercantile Exchange. Exporters find themselves in a disadvantageous situation, states Pavensky: with relatively high domestic price the world price is low.
The prices really low, said "Vedomosti" a major exporter. Exporters tend to earn at least $ 1 to 1 ton, it confirms analysts' conclusions. The volume of purchases exporters became less, he says. "If the trend is the same, then the harvest will be in Russia and rot," - he complains.
After opening the Egyptian market, domestic prices began to rise - from 8500 to 9300 rubles. for 1 ton, the chairman of the Krasnodar cooperative "Banner of Lenin" Yuri Haramain. Cooperative immediately signed a contract with the exporter, since at that price to sell profitable, he added.